Saturday, December 28, 2019

Probability of Union of 3 or More Sets

When two events are mutually exclusive, the probability of their union can be calculated with the addition rule. We know that for rolling a die, rolling a number greater than four or a number less than three are mutually exclusive events, with nothing in common. So to find the probability of this event, we simply add the probability that we roll a number greater than four to the probability that we roll a number less than three. In symbols, we have the following, where the capital P  denotes â€Å"probability of†: P(greater than four or less than three) P(greater than four) P(less than three) 2/6 2/6 4/6. If the events are not mutually exclusive, then we do not simply add the probabilities of the events together, but we need to subtract the probability of the intersection of the events. Given the events A and B: P(A U B) P(A) P(B) - P(A ∠© B). Here we account for the possibility of double-counting those elements that are in both A and B, and that is why we subtract the probability of the intersection. The question that arises from this is, â€Å"Why stop with two sets? What is the probability of the union of more than two sets?† Formula for Union of 3 Sets We will extend the above ideas to the situation where we have three sets, which we will denote A, B, and C. We will not assume anything more than this, so there is the possibility that the sets have a non-empty intersection. The goal will be to calculate the probability of the union of these three sets, or P (A U B U C). The above discussion for two sets still holds. We can add together the probabilities of the individual sets A, B, and C, but in doing this we have double-counted some elements. The elements in the intersection of A and B have been double counted as before, but now there are other elements that have potentially been counted twice. The elements in the intersection of A and C and in the intersection of B and C have now also been counted twice. So the probabilities of these intersections must also be subtracted. But have we subtracted too much? There is something new to consider that we did not have to be concerned about when there were only two sets. Just as any two sets can have an intersection, all three sets can also have an intersection. In trying to make sure that we did not double count anything, we have not counted at all those elements that show up in all three sets. So the probability of the intersection of all three sets must be added back in. Here is the formula that is derived from the above discussion: P (A U B U C) P(A) P(B) P(C) - P(A ∠© B) - P(A ∠© C) - P(B ∠© C) P(A ∠© B ∠© C) Example Involving 2 Dice To see the formula for the probability of the union of three sets, suppose we are playing a board game that involves rolling two dice. Due to the rules of the game, we need to get at least one of the die to be a two, three or four to win. What is the probability of this? We note that we are trying to calculate the probability of the union of three events: rolling at least one two, rolling at least one three, rolling at least one four. So we can use the above formula with the following probabilities: The probability of rolling a two is 11/36. The numerator here comes from the fact that there are six outcomes in which the first die is a two, six in which the second die is a two, and one outcome where both dice are twos. This gives us 6 6 - 1 11.The probability of rolling a three is 11/36, for the same reason as above.The probability of rolling a four is 11/36, for the same reason as above.The probability of rolling a two and a three is 2/36. Here we can simply list the possibilities, the two could come first or it could come second.The probability of rolling a two and a four is 2/36, for the same reason that probability of a two and a three is 2/36.The probability of rolling a two, three and a four is 0 because we are only rolling two dice and there is no way to get three numbers with two dice. We now use the formula and see that the probability of getting at least a two, a three or a four is 11/36 11/36 11/36 – 2/36 – 2/36 – 2/36 0 27/36. Formula for Probability of Union of 4 Sets The reason why the formula for the probability of the union of four sets has its form is similar to the reasoning for the formula for three sets. As the number of sets increases, the number of pairs, triples and so on increase as well. With four sets there are six pairwise intersections that must be subtracted, four triple intersections to add back in, and now a quadruple intersection that needs to be subtracted. Given four sets A, B, C and D, the formula for the union of these sets is as follows: P (A U B U C U D) P(A) P(B) P(C) P(D) - P(A ∠© B) - P(A ∠© C) - P(A ∠© D)- P(B ∠© C) - P(B ∠© D) - P(C ∠© D) P(A ∠© B ∠© C) P(A ∠© B ∠© D) P(A ∠© C ∠© D) P(B ∠© C ∠© D) - P(A ∠© B ∠© C ∠© D). Overall Pattern We could write formulas (that would look even scarier than the one above) for the probability of the union of more than four sets, but from studying the above formulas we should notice some patterns. These patterns hold to calculate unions of more than four sets. The probability of the union of any number of sets can be found as follows: Add the probabilities of the individual events.Subtract the probabilities of the intersections of every pair of events.Add the probabilities of the intersection of every set of three events.Subtract the probabilities of the intersection of every set of four events.Continue this process until the last probability is the probability of the intersection of the total number of sets that we started with.

Friday, December 20, 2019

Essay about The Destructive Nature of Technology - 2066 Words

From that first day that man discovered fire, the human race has continued its never-ending search to accomplish tasks in the most expedient manner possible. Society has decided that technology can be used to solve most of its immediate problems. This quest has brought us many useful things such as the telephone, the automobile, the oven, the CD player, etc. and has made living a little more enjoyable. If that were all, there would be no need to even mention these facts other than to advertise them. However, these so-called technological advances have also placed many hindrances on our daily life. Probably the most immediately important of these technological mishaps was the invention of the computer. Computer programmers and†¦show more content†¦Here is where stupidity enters and money vanishes. It should be obvious that a salesman or manufacturer is going to try to get their customers to purchase the most expensive computer considering that it is their job. What most people do not realize is that not every component that is purchased along with a computer is completely necessary. People could save so much money by simply asking to have those excess components removed. People too often feel the need to keep up with the Jones. For many people, having the latest technology is a big ego boost, because most ...entertainment technology brings status and prestige..., even if nobody knows its true purpose. The problem is that most people, especially young adults, ...cannot imagine a world without PCs [Personal Computers] sprinkled across desktops, laps, palms, eyes, and everywhere else. Ken Pohlmann enlightens us to this in is article The X-tronic Generationi. In the article, Pohlmann explains that many have become heavily dependent upon the use of technology to run the lives. This sad situation also applies to businesses. After the money has disappeared and stupidity has made its home, top executives, who generally only have a degree in business and not computers, decide to hire information technology (IT or information systems (IS)) professionals toShow MoreRelatedAlthough each classification of natural disaster is capable of creating catastrophic destruction, I700 Words   |  3 PagesAlthough each classification of natural disaster is capable of creating catastrophic destruction, I feel that the destruction resulting from the accumulated factors that are responsible for Tsunamis have a potential destructive force far greater than other singular forces of nature on their own; Furthermore, due to the densely populated urbanized regions in high-risk zones the potential impact on humans form Tsunamis is elevated in comparison with other phenomenas which may occur with little impactRead MoreThe Martian Chronicles by Ray Bradbury Essay example1547 Words   |  7 Pagesthe new rocket technology and space exploration, and created for the readers, the possible outcomes as technology took over the lives of humans. 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Thursday, December 12, 2019

Artificial Intelligence in Project Management free essay sample

The teds developed have been different expert systems, knowledge-based systems and neural networks, each designed to offer decision support to a specific type of problem. This paper will describe a small segment of these tools, as the paper will only focus on the latest and probably the most promising technology: neural networks. Only neural networks based on simple, standard software (Brainmaker Professional from California Scientific Software) for standard PC’s affordable to industry and easy to use by the project manager himself will be covered.The paper will give a short introduction to the technology, describe in some detail an application for analyzing polluted sites and based also on further cases from practice finally offer some general conclusions on the potential to the construction industry of this kind of technology. The human brain is made up of billions of cells called neurons. Each of these ceils is like a very small computer with extremely limited capacity y et connected together, these cells form the most intelligent system known. We will write a custom essay sample on Artificial Intelligence in Project Management or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Neural networks area class of computer systems formed from simulated neurons, connected to each other in a network simulating the way, that we believe the brain’s neurons are connected. The networks in this study are based on the so called feedforward, backpropagation algorithm. In this algorithm learning is simulated in much the same way, as we think people learn, by examples and repetition association. It is not programmed by rules etc, but it is trained . that is, when the network sees an input A, or something like it, it responds with output B, or something like it.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Addressing Medication Errors Occurring in Nursing

Question: Discuss about the Addressing Medication Errors Occurring in Nursing. Answer: Introduction In any healthcare scenario, the process of achieving effective therapeutic outcomes depends on various factors like treatment process, patient safety, communication, nursing care, drug interventions etc. (Fletcher, Fletcher Fletcher, 2012). Any kind of minor or major mistake in any of these factors can lead to drastic loss of patient health and healthcare organisation. Out of these factors drug intervention or medication is the most fundamental requirement to achieve treatment. Any kind of mistake or negligence in drug intervention process can result in direct side effect on patients health (Grove, Burns Gray, 2014). According to Raban Westbrook (2014), medication error is reported to be a reason for thousands of demises and millions of hospitalisation globally. Hence, fixation of any medication error becomes a fundamental requirement in healthcare scenario. The medication administration and management is one of the fundamental nursing roles that critically depend on the nursing skills and knowledge. The nursing staffs have the responsibility to administrate, monitor and manage the drug intervention for hospitalised patients. Therefore, continuous observance, alertness and approaches are required in healthcare scenario to avoid the potential chances of medical error (Grove, Burns Gray, 2014). According to Unver, Tastan Akbayrak (2012) studies the proper definition for medication error is any avoidable incident that risks to incongruous medication use causing or leading patient harm, although being under the control of medical professional, carer or consumer. The medication error incidences are related to healthcare products, medical practices, medical prescriptions, procedures, nursing practices, product labelling, compounding, distribution, education, dispensing, monitoring, utilisation and communication. Any kind of negligence in these events can lead to medication errors. Therefore, adopting best possible strategies to avoid this medication error in healthcare scenario is one of the major priority concerns (Fletcher, Fletcher Fletcher, 2012). As a registered nurse, it is been noticed in my clinical scenario that issue of medication error is gaining a possible position where around 60% risk event in hospital occur due to medication negligences in the nursing care unit. Some of the most common factors related to these medication errors are new staff, insufficient training, incorrect administration technique, prescription errors (incorrect dosage), expired medication usage, wrong patient identification, and preparation errors (mixing incorrect multiple medications, dose calculation errors). These factorial causes of medication error indicate nursing medication negligence in the clinical scenario. Therefore, it is critically required to minimise these events and manage medication error to improve medical care facility provided by nursing care unit. This Quality Improvement Project is specifically designed to manage this issue of medication error in healthcare scenario. The various negligences and issues in nursing care will be addressed as per the quality improvement process provided in this project to get a control over events of medication error in the organisation. Statement of problem or clinical question The medication errors described above are clearly indicating the lack of knowledge, calibre and guidance provided to the nursing staff of the hospital. The administration, prescription and preparation errors directly specify the issue in nursing skills and practice. Therefore, this quality improvement project will work to improve the nursing skills by providing a Short-term Periodic Training (STPT) Program that will acknowledge the staff about different strategies to avoid such medication error while dealing with patients in the hospital. This nursing training program is safe and specifically developed to improve nursing practice within the short duration of time to improve medical care. Project Aim The aim of this quality improvement project will be to implement Short-term Periodic Training Program (STPT program) to overcome nursing issues and mishandling that are increasing the risk of medication errors in healthcare scenario of selected organisation. Relevance of project to clinical practice The medication error is always considered to be a major clinical issue because it directly affects the patient safety and treatment process. Any kind of minor negligence in medication process is prone to develop major clinical consequences (Fletcher, Fletcher Fletcher, 2012). This project will help to decrease the risk cases occurring due to medication errors caused by mishandling and negligences of nursing staff in the healthcare organisation. The Short-term Nursing Program will work to overcome the identified factors leading to the medication error in nursing care unit causing high risk to patient safety. Hence, this quality improvement intervention will help to overcome the medication error harming medical care process. Review literature Nursing and medication error The establishment of patient safety and health betterment is the very first priority of quality healthcare services management. There are various faults and errors that lead to the imbalance in quality outcomes where medication error holds a top most position. After doctors prescribe a medicine the major role players are the nurses whose fundamental work is to manage the treatment of their patient (Grove, Burns Gray, 2014). According to a recent study related to Medication Safety in Australia provided by Chiang et al. (2010) the faults in nursing administration leads to 70% medication errors. Faults like wrong dose, wrong rate, wrong volume or dose incompatibility were reason of 90% medication error in nursing care unit resulting in surgical requirement, long patient stay and permanent health defects in the patients. Unver, Tastan, Akbayrak (2012) studied the causes of medication error as per nurses viewpoint where the findings indicated more than ten leading factors of medication error responded by paediatric nurses. The major once were stress (70%), burnout (45%), complicated prescription (30%), unfamiliar medicines (40%), work pressure (35%), knowledge deficiencies (20%), and lack of facilities (4%). Further, in a survey studied by Pham et al. (2012) indicated that majority of nursing staff is not aware of the correct form of medication error. Only 20% nurses mentioned medication error as the wrong dose, incorrect time of dose, and wrong mode of transmission and wrong administration process. However, rest 80% of nurses mentioned medication error as lack of documentation and reporting as the medication error. Hence, this literature indicated a lack of proper nursing education that detects the wrong perceptions of nurses about medication error. Role of nursing education and training in medication error Kalisch Aebersold (2010) indicated that nursing experience and education is one of the critical factors that is directly linked to medication error. The less experienced and skilled nurses cause 50% of medication errors that includes wrong patient, incorrect dilution calculations, incorrect dosage, incorrect administration and improper reporting. Seys et al. (2012) supported by indicating that nave nurses are generally not able to recognise their medication error as well as they lack proper knowledge in warrant reporting. This indicates a lack in professional training system of the healthcare organisation. In the study of Sears, Goldsworthy Goodman (2010) related to nurses viewpoint on medication error, it is clearly indicated that lack of pharmacological knowledge is a major reason for medication error as per viewpoint of 237 professional nurses. Hence, this directly indicates a requirement of improved training intervention in nursing practice. Chhabra et al. (2012) studied in a survey that 80% of new nurses commit medication error in first six months of their nursing practice where 70% remained unreported by them and 10% caused serious health hazards to the patient. Successful strategies and programs to address medication errors committed by nurses There are different strategies and programs implemented at various organisations in a different manner to cope up with the medication error. Agyemang While (2010) Opine the use of different strategies to avoid three major causes that are knowledge gaps, performance lapse, and failure of the safety system of medication. The strategies of MEDMARX program are described below: - Implementation of health record reviewing process Patient and clinician education Bar-code medicine management Reviewing the medication reporting format Computerised medical entry Further, Mueller et al. (2012) studied that E-learning is the most contemporary form of nursing education with the help of which nurses can get instant solutions for their issue related to medication process. This e-learning strategy helped to improve pharmaceutical knowledge and dosage calculation for nurses. The E-learning facility is new to nursing practices but possesses potential positive outcomes. Seys et al. (2012) studied the use of one nursing education program named as SCRIPT study that was developed to improve the issues like unreadable prescriptions, improper antibiotics documentation, and poor communication leading to medication error. The SCRIPT abbreviation was used in a manner to detail educational message about the program that indicated, S: Senior doctor cross-check, C: Check allergies, R: wRite indications for antibiotics, I: (Initial Date) of charting medicine in parenthesis, P: PRINT and sign your name, T: Appropriate Targets for infusions in the nursing practice . The post education results indicated a decrease in prescription error, dose infusions and communication errors. Mohammad et al. (2010) studied an Evidence-based quality improvement program (IQ program) used in hospitals of sixteen states where 30% of 616 critical care hospitals participated in program implementation. The findings indicated that project was successful in improving medication quality and safety in 90% of hospitals. The program used five strategies that are maintaining skilled nursing and pharmacist staff, use of pharmacological reconciliation techniques, implementing technological softwares (telehealth), improving nurse workflow and improving cultural defects in the organisation. Kwan et al. (2013) indicated that reviewing and updating service techniques with education and training on the periodic basis is effective to refine the nursing staff as per dwelling issues and problems in healthcare. This periodic training program can help to regularly update healthcare services as per the changing environmental complex situations. Outline of project procedure and Dissemination of findings This Quality Improvement research proposal will work to rectify the on-going medication errors that clearly highlight a lack of pharmaceutical knowledge, skills and training in the nursing staff of the organisation. The identified issue are insufficient training, incorrect administration technique, prescription errors (incorrect dosage), expired medication usage, wrong patient identification, and preparation errors (mixing incorrect multiple medications, dose calculation errors) that are leading to medication error establishment. Therefore, to overcome these factors that dwell medication error a Short-term Periodic Training Program (STPT) will be proposed in this project that will help to overcome these issues in the clinical scenario. This STPT will be a short-term 5 days training that will be provided to nursing staff of organisation in every six months to address the identified medication errors. As per the detected causes of medication error, this STPT will be designed and modified in every 6 month period by the experts to upgrade the nursing education and knowledge to cope up with changing healthcare environment and to address the medication errors for medical care improvement. This STPT program will involve an array of five strategies where each strategy will be guided to nurses on each day of the program. These strategies will be produced as per the identified medication error and mistakes in healthcare functionality. The establishment of STPT program will help to achieve equilibrium to manage the regular issues in medication services as well as the program will work to regularly upgrade the skills, education and knowledge of nursing staff within the organisation. Hence, this intervention will provide a regular process to control the medication complexity and establish the proper working environment. This quality improvement intervention will be planned using PDSA approach to regularly analyse the outcomes of this program. According to Nakayama et al. (2010) P-plan, D-do, S-study and A-act is a cycle that helps to analyse the impact of any trail or change in particular scenario. The planning phase involves the planning of change, do phase involves the implementation of change, study phase is accessing or studying the outcomes of change, and act phase involve determining the modification required in next change cycle. PDSA is considered as the ideal model of improvement. Figure 1: PDSA approach for quality improvement (Source: Nakayama et al. 2010, p. 337) In this project, PDSA cycle will be used to implement and test the effect of STPT program for addressing medication error. The below provided is the PDSA design and processes that will lead to development and evaluation of quality improvement program STPT for addressing the medication error in the present clinical scenario. P-Plan Team assembly Creating aim statement Determining the current approach Identifying the potential solutions For the planning phase, the required authorities that include management committee, medical specialists, senior nursing staff and senior pharmacist will be invited to attend a meeting where the medication issues identified will be discussed in details. The aim statement will be to educate nursing staff as per the identified medication error causes in the clinical scenario. The issues will be identifies using the baseline performance audit and health information data of the involved patients. As per the discussion, possible solutions or strategies will be identified to manage these issues. As the current issues are lack of pharmaceutical knowledge, skills and training in nursing staff the proposed training and education strategies are: - Educating about five rights of medication administration that are the right drug, right patient, right time, right route and right dosage. Educating about reconciliation procedures Educating about e-learning process to improve knowledge Educating about process to documenting medication information and reporting medication error Guiding about the use of drug guide and suggesting to carry it all the time (Jones Treiber, 2010). D-Do Analyse the improvement theory Initiate the STPT program intervention Collect the data to analyse Document the collected information The education program will be conducted with complete medical, pharmaceutical and surgical nursing staff. The program process will be carried for five days (2 hours) where each day a particular strategy will be taught by nursing teachers to the staff using audio-visual presentations. The education program will be designed as time efficient and simple. After the completion of the program a feedback form will be generated that is required to be filled by each participant of the program. This feedback data will help to analyse the effectiveness of program among audiences. After the completion of the educational program, a post-intervention will be checked for next five-week to detect the improvements in medication errors. S-Study Studying and analysing the collected data Identifying the errors and improvements In this phase of PDSA analysis, the collected feedback and audit information will be analysed to detect the improvement in medication error factors, mortality and serious hospitalisation, and impact on nursing staff for the implemented STPT program. A-Act Re-analysing the STPT program strategies Establishing future strategies Improving errors in plan This phase of PDSA cycle is to re-examine the error in program development and implementing the possible solution for mistakes detected as per analysis. The modifications will be made in program education strategies in the next STPT program as per the identified medication errors in clinical functionality. As per this quality improvement project of implementing a Short-term periodic training program to overcome medication error in organisation, it is expected that findings will demonstrate a clear decrease in the medication error events and improvement in patient safety. The PDSA approach applied for quality improvement development and analysis allows reviewing the program strategy in every periodic repetition of STPT program. Hence, this technique can be modified as per post education intervention outcomes using PDSA model of quality improvement. References Fletcher, R. H., Fletcher, S. W., Fletcher, G. S. (2012).Clinical epidemiology: the essentials. Lippincott Williams Wilkins. Grove, S. K., Burns, N., Gray, J. R. (2014).Understanding nursing research: Building an evidence-based practice. Elsevier Health Sciences. Agyemang, R. E. O., While, A. (2010). Medication errors: types, causes and impact on nursing practice.British journal of Nursing,19(6). Chhabra, P. T., Rattinger, G. B., Dutcher, S. K., Hare, M. E., Parsons, K. L., Zuckerman, I. H. (2012). Medication reconciliation during the transition to and from long-term care settings: a systematic review.Research in Social and Administrative Pharmacy,8(1), 60-75. Chiang, H. Y., Lin, S. Y., Hsu, S. C., Ma, S. C. (2010). Factors determining hospital nurses' failures in reporting medication errors in Taiwan.Nursing outlook,58(1), 17-25. Jones, J. H., Treiber, L. (2010). When the 5 rights go wrong: medication errors from the nursing perspective.Journal of Nursing Care Quality,25(3), 240-247. Kalisch, B. J., Aebersold, M. (2010). Interruptions and multitasking in nursing care.The joint commission journal on quality and patient safety,36(3), 126-132. Kwan, J. L., Lo, L., Sampson, M., Shojania, K. G. (2013). Medication reconciliation during transitions of care as a patient safety strategy: a systematic review.Annals of internal medicine,158(5_Part_2), 397-403. Mohammad Nejad, I., Hojjati, H., Sharifniya, S. H., Ehsani, S. R. (2010). Evaluation of medication error in nursing students in four educational hospitals in Tehran.Iranian Journal of Medical Ethics and History of Medicine,3, 60-69. Mueller, S. K., Sponsler, K. C., Kripalani, S., Schnipper, J. L. (2012). Hospital-based medication reconciliation practices: a systematic review.Archives of internal medicine,172(14), 1057-1069. Nakayama, D. K., Bushey, T. N., Hubbard, I., Cole, D., Brown, A., Grant, T. M., Shaker, I. J. (2010). Using a plan-do-study-act cycle to introduce a new OR service line.AORN journal,92(3), 335-343. Pham, J. C., Aswani, M. S., Rosen, M., Lee, H., Huddle, M., Weeks, K., Pronovost, P. J. (2012). Reducing medical errors and adverse events.Annual review of medicine,63, 447-463. Raban, M. Z., Westbrook, J. I. (2014). Are interventions to reduce interruptions and errors during medication administration effective?: a systematic review.BMJ quality safety,23(5), 414-421. Sears, K., Goldsworthy, S., Goodman, W. M. (2010). The relationship between simulation in nursing education and medication safety.Journal of Nursing Education,49(1), 52-55. Seys, D., Wu, A. W., Van Gerven, E., Vleugels, A., Euwema, M., Panella, M., ... Vanhaecht, K. (2012). Health care professionals as second victims after adverse events: a systematic review.Evaluation the health professions, 0163278712458918. Unver, V., Tastan, S., Akbayrak, N. (2012). Medication errors: perspectives of newly graduated and experienced nurses.International journal of nursing practice,18(4), 317-324.